Source Reliability and Evidence
An antique almanac features a local farmer who has predicted the arrival of the first frost every year for three decades. Which of the following sources would be most effective in evaluating the accuracy of the farmer’s long-term predictions?
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Answer: C. A statistical database of historical weather conditions corresponding to the farmer’s annual forecasts.
To evaluate any prediction's reliability, you must compare the predicted results against a database of actual historical outcomes.
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